1. Introduction

Date of Issue: 2024-09-27

Date of Last Modification: 2024-09-27

Application: This WARNO serves the purpose of an initial communication that alerts units or personnel of an upcoming operations. It provides enough information to allow them to begin preparing for the mission before the full details are available.

Approval Authority: Commanding Officer of the 1st Ranger Battalion, Arma III Realism

Enquiries: S-2 Intelligence Personnel – 1st Ranger Battalion, Arma III Realism

2. Warning Order

Alpha Company, 1st Ranger Battalion, United States Army

Date of Issuing Orders: 2024-09-27

Reference Number: OPERATION STRIDENT DEFENDER

3. Situation

SITUATION REPORT: SNAP ELECTION AND MILITARY COUP IN BELARUS

Date: 2024-09-14 LAST UPDATE

Location: Minsk, Belarus

Following a snap election, the newly-formed Belarusian Democratic Union (BDU), a pro-Western political party, has won a majority in the National Assembly of the Republic of Belarus. The victory signaled a significant pivot towards Western-aligned policies and closer ties with the EU and NATO.

In response, the Armed Forces of Belarus have executed a coup against the newly elected government, declaring the election results invalid. The military has rebranded itself as the People's Liberation Forces of Belarus (PLFB), citing a need to "protect Belarus from foreign influence" and restore national sovereignty. Key government buildings, including the House of Representatives and the Council of the Republic, have been seized by PLFB forces, and martial law has been declared across the nation.

The international community is closely monitoring the situation, with NATO and the European Union condemning the coup and urging the restoration of democratic governance.

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Military Strength of the People's Liberation Forces of Belarus (PLFB) – Key Factors: 

• Personnel:
• • Approximate total strength: 50,000 active-duty soldiers
  • Reservist base: Estimated 300,000
  • Strong loyalty among mid-ranking officers and ground forces
• Equipment:
• • Soviet-era tanks and armored vehicles (T-72, BMP-2)
  • Medium and heavy artillery (2S1 Gvozdika, BM-21 Grad)
  • Limited number of advanced Russian air defense systems (S-300, Buk)
  • Small fleet of combat aircraft and helicopters (MiG-29, Su-25, Mi-24)
• Air Force:
• • Outdated airframes with limited modernization
  • Heavy reliance on Russia for maintenance and spare parts
  • Capable of defensive operations but lacks offensive long-range capability
• Logistics:
• • Limited strategic mobility, constrained by outdated transport infrastructure
  • Dependent on Russian supply chains for advanced military equipment and fuel
  • Domestic production capacity limited to small arms and light vehicles
• Training & Doctrine:
• • Trained in Soviet-era tactics, with little exposure to modern Western warfare doctrines
  • Focus on defensive operations and territorial integrity
  • Limited joint-force capabilities, primarily focusing on ground and artillery operations
• Leadership:
• • Leadership primarily composed of pro-Russian and nationalist officers
  • Resistance to Western influences in military strategy
  • Prioritize internal security and suppression of political dissent
• Alliances & Support:
• • Strong informal ties to the Russian military, likely to receive covert logistical and material support
  • Isolated from Western military cooperation and sanctions on procurement
• Weaknesses:
• • Lack of advanced communications, intelligence, and surveillance capabilities
  • Heavy reliance on aging Soviet-era technology, limiting effectiveness against modern adversaries

• • Vulnerable to internal dissent and potential fractures within the ranks

Military Strength of NATO and Polish Forces – Referencing Battle Group Latvia: 

• Personnel:
• • NATO Enhanced Forward Presence (eFP):
  • • Multi-national NATO battle group stationed in Latvia, led by Canada
    • Composed of approximately 1,500-2,000 troops from multiple NATO countries (Canada, Spain, Italy, Poland, etc.)
    • Integrated with Latvian Armed Forces for joint operations
  • Polish Armed Forces:
  • • Approx. 120,000 active-duty personnel, with 500,000 in reserves
    • High readiness and deployment capability within the NATO framework
    • Well-trained and experienced from deployments in NATO missions and exercises
• Equipment:
• • NATO Battle Group (Latvia):
  • • Mechanized infantry units supported by Leopard 2 tanks (Canada)
    • Artillery units with M777 howitzers and mortars
    • Air defense systems like NASAMS and anti-tank guided missiles
    • Infantry fighting vehicles (Piranha V, Boxer) and armored personnel carriers (APC)
  • Polish Armed Forces:
  • • Modernized armored forces with Leopard 2 and PT-91 tanks
    • Long-range artillery (Krab self-propelled howitzers, HIMARS rocket systems)
    • Air defense (Patriot and NASAMS systems) and mobile anti-aircraft units
    • Polish F-16 fighter jets, MiG-29s, and incoming F-35 Lightning II jets
    • Naval forces equipped with submarines, missile corvettes, and amphibious capabilities
• Air Force & Air Support:
• • NATO Air Superiority:
  • • Multi-role fighter jets (F-16, Eurofighter Typhoon, F-35) capable of air dominance
    • Strategic airlift (C-17, C-130), ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) drones
    • Helicopters for transport, medevac, and close air support (Apache, Black Hawk)
  • Polish Air Force:
  • • 48 F-16 fighters with modern weaponry
    • Long-range strike and air superiority capabilities
    • Close integration with NATO for joint air defense and quick reaction alerts
• Logistics & Supply Chains:
• • NATO Battle Group:
  • • Supported by NATO logistics hubs across Europe, ensuring a steady supply chain
    • Fast resupply capacity from major NATO bases in Germany and Poland
    • Close integration with local Latvian logistics infrastructure
  • Polish Forces:
  • • Strong domestic defense industry capable of producing tanks, artillery, and vehicles
    • Secure supply lines from NATO allies, especially the U.S. and Germany
    • Well-developed transportation network for rapid deployment along Eastern Europe
• Training & Doctrine:
• • NATO eFP Latvia:
  • • Continuous joint training exercises with Baltic states and NATO allies
    • High emphasis on interoperability, modern combined-arms tactics, and joint air-ground operations
    • Experience in counterinsurgency and conventional warfare from deployments in Afghanistan and Iraq
  • Polish Forces:
  • • Extensive NATO-aligned training, with focus on combined-arms operations
    • Specialized training in urban warfare, air defense, and reconnaissance
    • Regular participation in large NATO exercises (e.g., DEFENDER Europe, Anaconda)
• Alliances & Support:
• • NATO Collective Defense (Article 5):
  • • Unified commitment to defend any member state under attack
    • Strong U.S. and European support through NATO’s rapid response forces and forward-deployed troops
  • Poland:
  • • Major NATO ally on the Eastern flank, strategically important for reinforcing the Baltic States
    • Close defense cooperation with the U.S., including permanent U.S. troop presence in Poland
    • Leadership in regional security efforts like the Visegrád Group and cooperation with Ukraine
• Weaknesses:
• • NATO eFP Battle Group:
  • • Relatively small compared to the size of Russian or Belarusian forces in the region
    • Heavy reliance on reinforcements and rapid deployment from NATO reserves in a high-intensity conflict
  • Polish Forces:
  • • Although modernizing, some legacy Soviet-era systems still in service
    • Limited strategic airlift and naval power compared to larger NATO allies

• • • Vulnerability to cyber and hybrid warfare, especially along energy and communication infrastructure

Poland's Terrain and Civilian Population – Key Considerations: 

• Terrain:

• • General Geography:
  • • Poland is primarily a flat, lowland country, with the vast North European Plain stretching across most of its territory.
    • Elevation: The terrain gradually rises toward the south, with hilly regions and mountain ranges (e.g., the Carpathians, Sudetes) along the southern borders with Slovakia and the Czech Republic.
    • Major Rivers: The Vistula (Wisła) and Oder (Odra) rivers are Poland’s major waterways, running northward to the Baltic Sea and serving as important natural barriers.
    • Coastal Areas: The northern coastline along the Baltic Sea includes significant ports (e.g., Gdańsk, Gdynia) and low-lying coastal plains.
• Forests & Rural Areas:
• • Dense forests cover about 30% of Poland’s land, particularly in the east (Białowieża Forest) and southwest, which provide natural cover for military operations and potential insurgencies.
  • Rural areas and agricultural land dominate central and eastern Poland, with small villages scattered throughout.
• Urban Centers:
• • Major cities like Warsaw (capital), Kraków, Łódź, Wrocław, and Poznań serve as critical economic and strategic hubs.
  • These urban centers present complex terrain for military operations due to dense infrastructure, industrial zones, and significant civilian populations.
• Transport Infrastructure:
• • Poland has a well-developed road and rail network, facilitating troop and supply movements.
  • The A2 and A4 highways are vital east-west transit routes, while numerous railways connect Poland to neighboring NATO countries.
  • Some areas, especially in the southeast, have less developed infrastructure, which may slow military movements.
• Civilian Population:
• • Demographics:
  • • Population of approximately 38 million people, with a high concentration in urban centers like Warsaw (~1.8 million) and Kraków (~770,000).
    • Rural communities are widespread, particularly in eastern and southeastern Poland, and often more isolated.
  • Cultural Identity & Patriotism:
  • • Poland has a strong sense of national identity and patriotism, shaped by its history of resistance against foreign occupation and Communist rule.
    • The population is highly supportive of NATO and national defense efforts, and many have been active in civil defense organizations.
  • Civilian Resistance & Support:
  • • The civilian population is likely to provide substantial support to NATO and Polish forces in the event of conflict, including volunteer efforts and partisan activity.
    • Poland has a well-established Territorial Defense Force (Wojska Obrony Terytorialnej), composed of civilian volunteers trained for local defense, with an estimated 30,000 active members.
  • Humanitarian & Refugee Concerns:
  • • Large-scale conflict in the region could trigger displacement, especially in border regions near Belarus and Russia, leading to humanitarian concerns.
    • Poland has experience handling refugee flows, particularly after taking in large numbers of Ukrainian refugees following Russia's invasion in 2022.
  • Potential Challenges:
  • • In a conflict, safeguarding civilian infrastructure (power grids, water supplies) and avoiding collateral damage in densely populated urban areas will be critical.
    • Large numbers of civilians could complicate military operations, especially in major cities or during mass evacuations.
• Key Terrain Considerations for Military Operations:
• • The open plains and flat terrain of central and eastern Poland favor mechanized warfare and rapid movement.
  • The heavily forested areas and southern mountains create natural obstacles for large-scale troop movements and offer concealment for guerrilla or insurgent tactics.
  • Control of urban centers and key transportation routes will be crucial for both defensive and offensive military operations.
    

4. Mission

​Mission Statement: 

• The 1st Ranger Battalion, in collaboration with undisclosed special forces units, is tasked with executing a critical mission to support the newly elected government of Poland amidst escalating tensions with the People's Liberation Forces of Belarus (PLFB). 
• Reports indicate that loyal military members are working to secure the safety of the new Polish government, our objective is to establish a defensive posture along the Polish-Belarus border. 
• Alpha Company will conduct reconnaissance and intelligence-gathering operations to monitor PLFB movements, ensuring that any attempts to pursue and destabilize the democratic governance of Poland are met with decisive resistance. 
• Our commitment to upholding sovereignty and protecting democratic values will guide our operations as we stand ready to support our allies and safeguard the region from hostile actions. 
• The 1st Ranger Battalion is prepared to adapt and respond to evolving threats while maintaining the highest standards of excellence and integrity in our mission execution.
  

5. Execution

Commander’s Intent: The Commander’s intent is to establish a robust U.S. military presence in Poland to support the newly elected government and counter the advancing threats posed by the People's Liberation Forces of Belarus (PLFB). Our objectives are to ensure the safety of loyal military personnel, safeguard the integrity of Poland’s sovereignty, and prevent any aggression that could destabilize the region. We will operate in close coordination with allied forces and special units to demonstrate a united front against external threats and foster stability within the Eastern European theater.

Concept of Operations: U.S. forces will deploy in a phased approach, prioritizing the establishment of defensive positions along key strategic locations along the Polish-Belarus border. The operation will consist of the following phases:

Initial Deployment:

• Rapidly mobilize and deploy forces to designated forward operating bases (FOBs) in Poland.
• Establish secure communications and logistics networks to facilitate coordination with allied forces and special operations units.

Reconnaissance and Intelligence Gathering:

• Conduct reconnaissance missions to assess enemy troop movements and gather intelligence on PLFB capabilities.
• Utilize UAVs and ground reconnaissance teams to monitor the border area for signs of potential incursions.

Force Integration:

• Integrate with allied forces and undisclosed special operations units to enhance operational capabilities and intelligence-sharing.
• Conduct joint training exercises to improve interoperability and establish unified command structures.

Defensive Posturing:

• Deploy troops to establish defensive perimeters along vulnerable border areas.
• Prepare to conduct quick reaction force (QRF) operations to respond to any incursions or hostile actions by PLFB forces.

Humanitarian and Civilian Support:

• Coordinate with local authorities to assess and address potential humanitarian needs arising from the conflict.
• Ensure the safety of civilians and loyal military members seeking refuge from PLFB aggression.

Tasks to Subordinate Units:

• 1st Ranger Battalion:
• • Lead reconnaissance operations to assess the situation along the border and identify potential enemy positions.
  • Establish defensive outposts in key areas to deter enemy movement and protect civilian populations.
• Special Operations Units:
• • Conduct covert operations to gather intelligence on PLFB leadership and strategic capabilities.
  • Execute targeted missions to disrupt enemy supply lines and command structures.
• Logistics and Support Units:
• • Ensure rapid resupply and sustainment operations for deployed forces, maintaining operational readiness.
  • Establish medical evacuation (MEDEVAC) protocols to support injured personnel and civilian populations.
• Civil Affairs Teams:
• • Engage with local communities to build rapport and gather information on civilian needs and concerns.
  • Facilitate humanitarian assistance efforts to support displaced individuals and communities affected by the conflict.
• Communications Units:
• • Set up secure communication lines between U.S. forces, allied forces, and local government agencies.
  • Maintain situational awareness through regular updates and intelligence sharing.

End State: The successful execution of this operation will ensure the stabilization of Poland, the protection of its democratic government, and the deterrence of hostile actions from the PLFB. U.S. forces will be prepared to adapt to evolving threats and support the broader NATO mission in Eastern Europe.

6. Sustainment

​Logistics: 

• Ammo resupply will be available at designated Landing Zones (LZ). Medical support will be provided by the attached medics from the battalion aid station; and
• Meal and Water kits are to be transported at the platoon level with provided ration packs.

Personnel: 

• Ensure all personnel are combat-loaded and have completed their pre-combat inspections (PCI).
  

7. Command and Signal

Command:

• Overall Command:
• • U.S. Forces in the region will operate under the overall command of Colonel H. Simmerson, Commander of the U.S. 1st Ranger Battalion, in coordination with NATO and Polish defense forces.
  • Allied forces, including special operations and undisclosed units, will be under the operational control (OPCON) of Task Force Sentinel, with mission directives issued through the NATO Eastern Command.
• Command Relationships:
• • U.S. Forces will maintain tactical control (TACON) over all attached Ranger elements, with joint operations coordinated through NATO channels. Special operations units will report directly to Task Force Sentinel for mission-specific tasks.
  • Polish Forces will operate under their national command authority but will liaise directly with U.S. and NATO command structures for joint operations.
  • U.S. forces will synchronize operations with the Special Operations Task Force to ensure integration of covert and intelligence missions with conventional operations.
• Succession of Command:
• • In the event that Colonel H. Simmerson is unable to continue in command, the command will pass to Lieutenant Colonel M. Hogan, Deputy Commander of the 1st Ranger Battalion.
  • Each subordinate unit will have a pre-designated chain of command as outlined in the mission’s operational orders.

Signal:

• Primary Communications:
• • Secure communications will be established through SINCGARS (Single Channel Ground and Airborne Radio System) for tactical unit-to-unit communication.
  • Joint Force Communications Network (JFCN) will provide encrypted communication for coordination between U.S., NATO, and Polish Forces. Units will maintain regular contact with headquarters and adjacent forces via this network.
• Alternate Communications:
• • Satellite Communications (SATCOM) will be used as a secondary method for long-range communications in case of primary system failure or interference.
  • Field phones and messenger systems will serve as backup communication within forward positions and for maintaining local security.
• Call Signs and Frequencies:
• • Call signs for all units and leaders will be provided in the Annex K (Communications) of the operational order. Call signs will be used for secure communication across tactical networks.
  • Frequency management will be handled by the S-6 Communications Section, with changes and encryption keys updated daily to ensure operational security.
• Visual Signals:
• • Standard visual signals for identification and coordination, including IR strobes, signal flares, and marking panels, will be used in situations where radio silence is required or communications fail.
• Emergency Communication Procedures:
• • In the event of complete communication failure, units will revert to pre-established emergency fallback frequencies outlined in the Communications SOP.

• • Emergency beacons and signal devices will be issued to all personnel to ensure recovery and extraction in high-risk zones.

8. Closing Remarks

​Remarks​: 

• Unit Members are to be located on Operations Server 2302 no later than (NLT) 1930EST;
• LOAs are to be submitted prior to 1900EST; and
• Leadership is to report to TeamSpeak (TS) at 1900EST

CPT J. Prescott, Commanding Officer, Alpha Company